Greenhouse gas emission trends – IPPC report
Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs and SF6, ) have grown since pre-industrial times, with an increase of 70% between 1970 and 2004 (24% between 1990 and 2004), from 28.7 to 49 Gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents (GtCO2-eq)2 (see Figure SPM.1)
With current climate change mitigation policies and related sustainable development practices, global GHG emissions will continue to grow by a range of 9.7 GtCO2-eq to 36.7 GtCO2-eq (25-90%) between 2000 and 20309 (Box SPM.1 and Figure SPM.4). In these scenarios, fossil fuels are projected to maintain their dominant position in the global energy mix to 2030 and beyond. Hence CO2 emissions between 2000 and 2030 from energy use are projected to grow 45 to 110% over that period.
Figure SPM 1: Global Warming Potential (GWP) weighted global greenhouse gas emissions 1970-2004. 100 year GWPs from IPCC 1996 (SAR) were used to convert emissions to CO2-eq. (cf. UNFCCC reporting guidelines). CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs and SF6 from all sources are included.
The two CO2 emission categories reflect CO2 emissions from energy production and use (second from bottom) and from land use changes (third from the bottom) [Figure 1.1a].
1. Other N2O includes industrial processes, deforestation/savannah burning, waste water and waste incineration.
2. Other is CH4 from industrial processes and savannah burning.
3. CO2 emissions from decay (decomposition) of above ground biomass that remains after logging and deforestation and CO2 from peat fires and decay of drained peat soils.
4. As well as traditional biomass use at 10% of total, assuming 90% is from sustainable biomass production. Corrected for 10% carbon of biomass that is assumed to remain as charcoal after combustion.
5. For large-scale forest and scrubland biomass burning averaged data for 1997-2002 based on Global Fire Emissions Data base satellite data.
6. Cement production and natural gas flaring.
7. Fossil fuel use includes emissions from feedstocks. A1b_a2
Figure SPM 2: Relative global development of Gross Domestic Product measured in PPP (GDPppp), Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES), CO2 emissions (from fossil fuel burning, gas flaring and cement manufacturing) and Population (Pop). In addition, in dotted lines, the figure shows Income per capita (GDPppp/Pop), Energy Intensity (TPES/GDPppp), Carbon Intensity of energy supply (CO2/TPES), and Emission Intensity of the economic production process (CO2/GDPppp) for the period 1970-2004. [Figure 1.5]
Figure SPM 3a: Year 2004 distribution of regional per capita GHG emissions (all Kyoto gases, including those from land-use) over the population of different country groupings. The percentages in the bars indicate a regions share in global GHG emissions [Figure 1.4a].
Figure SPM 3b: Year 2004 distribution of regional GHG emissions (all Kyoto gases, including those from land-use) per US$ of GDPppp over the GDPppp of different country groupings. The percentages in the bars indicate a regions share in global GHG emissions [Figure 1.4b].